China's Corruption Scandal: Is War with Taiwan Now Less Likely? (ft. the Robinson Crusoe Fallacy)

By Corruption Buzz On Apr 9, 2024

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Earlier this year, reports of a corruption scandal in China surfaced. Allegations included poorly designed missile silos that are unable to open and soldiers siphoning off fuel for the purposes of cooking hotpot. An oft-repeated conclusion regarding the report is that China will be less likely to stage a military campaign against Taiwan in the near future as a result. Is this true? Using some simple lines on maps logic, we will see that the answer is not so simple.

You can read the original report here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military

0:00 China’s Corruption Scandal and the Probability of War
2:36 What Are the Corruption Allegations?
6:58 Less Desire for War?
9:41 The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy
14:08 Is Conflict Less Likely?
17:04 Asymmetric Information and War
19:17 Preventive War

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media courtesy of the European Union: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/photo-details/P-061199~2F00-10

Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):

By Presidential Office of Taiwan:
https://flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/52259817613
https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/30561064614
https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/albums/72177720314260255
https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/albums/72177720313725272

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490
http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/351/events/60669
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72100

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