Florida Democrats flop as GOP spends more, out-hustles them – Orlando Sentinel

TALLAHASSEE — An election tsunami swept Florida on Tuesday, bolstering Gov. Ron DeSantis as a potential presidential candidate in 2024 and giving Republicans even greater control of state government than they already have.

Led by a landslide reelection victory by DeSantis in a state known for its narrow victories and frequent recounts, the Republican Party saw huge wins in parts of the state historically won by Democrats. They gained a supermajority in both the House and Senate and four additional seats in Congress.

The Republican Party outspent, out-registered and out-messaged Democrats. And some of the gains for the GOP in Florida were a loss for other states, who saw voters migrate to the “Free State of Florida,” as DeSantis called it.

“Demography has become destiny in Florida,” said Daniel Smith, head of the political science department at the University of Florida. “The Sunshine State has always been a haven for those in the North who want to lower their tax burden, privatize the provision of public services and avoid taking responsibility for the most vulnerable in society.”

Blame also falls on a dysfunctional Florida Democratic Party, which failed to show candidates the money they needed to compete and lost the voter registration sweepstakes, capitulating to gains by the GOP and non-party affiliated voters.

At the same time, the national Democratic Party basically sat out the campaign.

“Although many in Florida are not yet willing to concede the state to GOP dominance in perpetuity, it appears that even more Democrats nationally have decided to abandon Florida,” Smith said, to focus on more competitive states.

In fact, the GOP tidal wave didn’t sweep the nation, with Democrats winning key governorships and U.S. Senate races, beating candidates backed by Donald Trump.

The Florida Democratic Party came into the 2022 election cycle losing ground to Republican voters. By the summer, Republicans outnumbered Democrats for the first time in state history – 5.26 million to 4.96 million.

Republicans also fielded candidates at the top of the ticket that excited their base voters, something Democrats failed to do with the nomination of Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who already lost one bid for governor as a Democrat.

DeSantis, who won the governorship by a whisker in 2018 against a Democrat who was named in an FBI public corruption investigation, beat Crist by nearly 20 percentage points in a state known for 1-2% margins of victory in statewide elections.

Marco Rubio won re-election to the U.S. Senate by a similar margin, as did Attorney General Ashley Moody and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis for their Cabinet seats. Outgoing Senate President Wilton Simpson of Trilby also won the agriculture commissioner seat by about 18 points.

“The top of the ticket drives turnout,” said Evan Ross, a Democratic consultant and president and CEO of the Miami-based Public Communicators Group. “We had the worst nominee in history, who didn’t have the money and lost by the widest margin since 1868.”

Republicans vastly outspent Democrats by at least $250 million, based on an analysis by investigative reporter Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents.

Friends of Ron DeSantis, the Republican Party of Florida, and the House and Senate campaign committees spent a combined $297 million, compared to $45 million spent by the political committees of Charlie Crist and the Florida Democratic Party.

Ross said the national party put the money where it was likely to have the biggest impact.

“We‘re likely to save the Senate, and the House is still close,” Ross said. “The investments made across the country seem to have paid off.”

But Orlando attorney John Morgan, a prominent former Democratic fundraiser turned independent, said no amount of money would have benefited the state party.

“One billion dollars would not have helped,” Morgan said. “This was as crushing a defeat as you will see. Florida is bright red. The rest of the country gave Democrats and Biden much to celebrate.”

Democrats in Florida have yet to find a message that resonates with older, white constituents willing to entertain progressive ideals or mobilize a younger, more diverse pool of potential voters who are disenchanted, Smith said.

“The last person who threaded that needle was Barack Obama, but I doubt even he could do it in the current electoral environment,” he said.

It had to be more than just criticizing Biden’s economic policies that motivated Republicans to vote, Smith said.

“It can’t be that state of the national economy or inflation, because that’s hitting Floridians just like folks in Pennsylvania or Michigan or Arizona, places where Democrats have been able to weather this red tide,” Smith said. “So it’s got to either be the messaging or the messenger that’s not resonating with Floridians.”

Older white Democrats and Black women turned out, he said. “But beyond that, the Democratic Party is in shambles.”

Having a persuasive message can overcome low turnout, Ross said. “Voter persuasion is three times more important than turnout,” he said.

The once-reliable Hispanic vote especially abandoned Democrats, Smith said, but in two different ways.

“The efforts that have been made over the last decade to retain Hispanics, to increase Hispanics into the party, have seemingly evaporated,” Smith said.

Central Florida was a case point for that, he said. Osceola County, considered the heart of the Puerto Rican community in Florida, saw just a 40% turnout this election, and DeSantis and Rubio both won there.

In Orange County, turnout was about 47%, far below what Democrats needed.

“South Florida is a different story,” Smith said. “It’s partly the lack of turnout, but it’s also Hispanics leaning towards the Republican Party.”

Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami, said Democrats are floundering.

“In the Hispanic community, I don’t think the Democrats have come up with any answer for the Republican gains since 2018,” Koger said. “That population has now trended so Republican that Democrats don’t even try to campaign amongst them.”

Koger was unsure what the future held for state Democrats. But he said the most positive scenario at the moment would be a Florida version of Beto O’Rourke in Texas, who lost races for senator and governor but still boosted turnout for Democrats down the ballot.

“They [need to] get an invigorating candidate who manages to raise a lot of money, not necessarily from the party but from the national donor base, and uses it to reinvigorate the party operation in Florida. [Someone] registering voters, recruiting other candidates, just creating a countervailing wave that the national party and the state party cannot provide for themselves.”

The party needs to invest in more infrastructure, and stop using lack of money as an excuse, Ross said.

“We need a reset, and we need people who understand what it takes to win an election,” he said.

Complete election coverage can be found at OrlandoSentinel.com/election.