Market Outlook for April 6, 2025 – The Orange Recession

0:00 – 19:17 Rates/Yields/OAS
19:18 – 32:34 SPY
32:34 – 45:39 Executive Order
45:40 – 1:05:51 What we know so far
1:05:52 – 1:16:32 The real cause of the Trade Deficit
1:16:33 – 1:40:27 Possible exits

https://www.markmeldrum.com

CFA/Applied Series subscriptions:
https://www.markmeldrum.com/subscriptions/

Economic calendars
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

This Week in Earnings:
https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/TRPR_82221_794.pdf

Money Market flows:
https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf

Fed Balance Sheet:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

LINK TO S&P SPREADSHEET:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx

SIFMA:
https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-corporate-bonds-statistics/

Freddie Mortgage Rates:
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Treasury:
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023

SOMA
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings

EFFR
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

Reverse Repo
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo

FedWatch Tool:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

STIR analytics
https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/short-term-interest-rate-analytics.html

Forward Curves:
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-forward-curves

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