Dispelling the empty rumors on the social media of an invisible coup d’etat in Beijing, Chinese president Xi Jinping made his first public appearance on Tuesday since returning to China in mid-September. The stage is now set for perhaps the most important political event in the recent history of China begging the question will Xi Jinping emerge stronger after the 20th National Party Congress (NPC) scheduled on October 16 later this year and will he declare a successor?
Experts believe that Xi is more likely to cement his position even further in the political setup of China. China-watchers expect the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party to embark on his extraordinary third term without any hiccups. So, what is working in Xi’s favour, why does he remain unchallenged and why it is virtually impossible even for the military to overthrow him in present-day China?
According to China experts, the top Chinese political leader, through his sustained efforts, has made sure that his position becomes stronger through his direct and indirect hold over most decision-making bodies.
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“Undoubtedly, Xi Jinping is going to embark on his third term with the 20th Party Congress. It remains no mystery given no successor has been declared and Xi has already amassed central authority in every capacity in China,” said Dr Amrita Jash, Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education and author of the book The Concept of Active Defence in China’s Military Strategy.
According to Dr Jash, among the principal factors working in Xi’s favour is his success in consolidating his power as the supreme leader by means of enshrining “Xi Jinping thought” to the Constitution, abolishing the presidential term limits and incorporating a powerful new government agency called the National Supervisory Commission into China’s Constitution.
“Xi Jinping has been strategically placing his loyalists in all important party and state positions,” Suyash Desai, another keen China-watcher and Taiwan-based research scholar studying China’s defence and foreign policies tells India Today.
There is also a belief that Xi has created a political system where the wheels of power revolve around him.
“Party’s key centres are immensely reliant on him personally, especially as he has spent the last five years ensuring complete control over functions of the government,” Eerishika Pankaj, Head of Research and Operations Director at Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA) in New Delhi tells India Today.
In her opinion, by deemphasising the formal government bureaucracy, Xi has reconfigured the regime’s policymaking environment, strengthening his power to steer a route that is advantageous to his personal and policy aims.
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“Xi has made significant changes to the procedure for choosing the delegates and senior leaders. Xi’s emphasis on centralization and ‘top-level design’ is emphasised by these reforms, which undermine past conventions intended to promote greater balance and openness,” she added.
PLA: Xi’s Military
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the principal military force in China, has undergone some structural reforms over the past few years, but Xi remains firmer at the very core of the PLA power structure. A recent report by Joel Wuthnow, a Washington-based National Defense University that analysed more than 300 biographies of senior Chinese military officers from 2015 and 2021 noted that there were few opportunities for “fast burners” to achieve quicker success in the PLA.
“Senior officers were homogenous in terms of age, education, gender, and ethnicity. Xi has not looked to a broader pool of talent to fill the senior ranks,” Wuthnow notes in his study. He further assessed that all PLA officers were members of the CCP and must show enough political acumen to demonstrate loyalty to Xi and his agenda. Military officers are also rotated geographically to prevent patronage networks.
As the Chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and commander-in-chief of the PLA, Xi Jinping steers the PLA’s every proceeding. “The PLA cannot exercise any form of self-motivated actions, therefore leaving no scope for the PLA to dismiss or overrule Xi’s command,” Dr Jash explains.
She further cites the 2017 CMC circular which categorically stated that: “the army should be absolutely loyal, honest and reliable to Xi” and asserted that “the army should follow Xi’s command, answer to his order, and never worry him.”
The revised Constitution specifically emphasises the “implementation of Xi Jinping’s thinking” on strengthening the PLA. Besides, Xi has also adopted the tactic of rapid promotions of PLA officers to gain loyalty.
“Since 2019, Xi has promoted 38 officers to the rank of full generals- giving only his loyalists the key posts,” noted Dr Jash.
According to Desai, the basic nature of the PLA itself separates it from most other militaries. “Unlike most armed forces, the PLA is the party’s army and not the state’s army. So, the PLA is answerable to CCP chief and CMC Chairman, both positions occupied by Xi. The loyalty of the armed forces (the PLA) and paramilitary forces (PAP) makes Xi’s position comfortable and his regime unchallengeable,” Desai explains why the idea of a military coup against Xi could be a faraway thought.
The Xi Gang
Experts also claim that Xi’s control over central power structures of the party is now ‘absolute’ with the state council’s powers under Xi and the ever-weakening situation of factional politics in China. Eerishika Pankaj emphasises that earlier, it was the council that delinked the party secretary and state president, which is now under Xi’s command, with the creation of small leading groups, many of which Xi chairs himself.
“In such a scenario, the power of Xi’s faction — termed the Xi Gang or Xi Clique –which emerged as a rival to Jiang Zemin’s Shanghai Gang and the Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) headed by Hu Jintao is no longer under threat,” said Pankaj.
The Xi Gang, by default, now holds all major decision-making posts, negating the influential power of the other two factions, which are unable to balance their authority against it.
Hu Chunhua—touted as the next Premier replacing Li Keqiang, belongs to the Youth League faction; nonetheless, he still remains the most promising candidate, as he has been signaling loyalty to Xi. “The gradual weakening of the premier’s power ensures that he would not emerge as a structural threat,” Pankaj added.
Eliminating Opposition
Since assuming power, a string of senior officials have been punished for corruption in crackdowns launched after President Xi Jinping took power in late 2012. Xi has been eliminating rival leaders under charges of corruption that has put some of China’s highest-ranking officials either under prosecution or under investigation. The recent incidents of arrests and prosecution just before the October 16 political gala include the sentencing of a former Chinese justice minister and a former deputy police minister earlier this month.
“Xi has been using the ‘anti-corruption’ campaign to catch the ‘tigers’ and the ‘flies’ of both civil and military- a mechanism to avert all forms of challenges to his political politics- in the party, state and the PLA,” said Dr Jash. Xi has empowered and utilised the discipline inspection committees to keep tabs on rival factions.
“An example of this was inclusion of discipline inspection officer in the Central Military Commission. Even if there is a little doubt on someone possibly challenging Xi, discipline inspection acts against it, and they are put behind bars. This makes challenging Xi a bit difficult,” said Desai.
Xi, according to Pankaj, has “orchestrated a methodical campaign of personalised exaltation of his position within the leadership by both removing opposition as part of his anti-corruption campaigns and installing key loyalists in powerful positions to protect his authority.”
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